23 February 2011 Noah’s 100% Reliable Oscar Predictions 2011.
Aight kids I only missed 4 categories last year, but this year will not be as peachy. I can guarantee you that. At any rate, here are my thoughts. Use them at your own risk.
BEST PICTURE
Will win: [god help me] The Social Network
Should win: probably The Social Network
Upset: The King’s Speech
Should’ve been nominated: Animal Kingdom
This is seriously the worst prediction I’ve made for anything ever. I think I know in my brain that The King’s Speech will win on Sunday night, but I can’t bring my heart to terms with this. The Social Network is a LANDMARK of American cinema and will be remembered long after The King’s Speech fades away. Plus, Social Network dominated the critic’s awards and won the WGA and ACE. So if you know what’s good for you, predict King’s Speech.
LEADING ACTOR
Will win: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
Should win: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Upset: None.
Should’ve been nominated: Eh, actually a pretty solid category.
Colin Firth will win this. Tell your friends.
LEADING ACTRESS
Will win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Should win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Upset: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Should’ve been nominated: Hailee Steinfeld in the correct category.
Portman will win her first and very deserved oscar. Which, I might add, is no small feat since every single one of the nominees is SO GOOD [particularly Nicole Kidman and Jennifer Lawrence].
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will win: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Should win: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Upset: Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
Should’ve been nominated: Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
I hear talk that the King’s Speech lovejuice may overflow into Geoffrey Rush’s cup [what] but Bale is too good to be ignored, methinks.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will win: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Should win: Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Upset: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Should’ve been nominated: Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Leo’s recently put out some pretty embarrassing For Your Consideration ads that she’s personally financed, which could very well lose her some votes. Plus, Kailee Steinfeld is the lead in her film and people really like True Grit. But, at the end of the day I think Leo will still win.
DIRECTOR
Will win: David Fincher, The Social Network
Should win: David Fincher, The Social Network
Upset: Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
Should’ve been nominated: I’m not even a Nolan fanboy, but seriously CHRISTOPHER NOLAN.
I know Tom Hooper will probably win. He won the DGA, and it is a RARE occasion when oscar and DGA don’t match. But I can’t. I just can’t.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will win: David Seidler, The King’s Speech
Should win: The Kids Are All Right, Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg
Upset: Christopher Nolan, Inception
Should’ve been nominated: BLACK SWAN. [Seriously y'all.]
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win/Should win/Upset/The end: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Should’ve been nominated: Scott Pilgrim vs the World
ANIMATED FILM
Will win/Should win: Toy Story 3
Upset: How to Train Your Dragon
Should’ve been nominated: Tangled
DOCUMENTARY
Will win: Inside Job
Should win: Exit Through the Gift Shop
Upset: Exit Through the Gift Shop
Should’ve been nominated: The Lottery
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will win/Should win: Biutiful
Upset: In a Better World
EDITING
Will win: The Social Network
Should win: 127 Hours
Upset: The King’s Speech
Should’ve been nominated: Inception [the last hour of which is a masterpiece of perfect editing]
ART DIRECTION
Will win: Alice in Wonderland
Should win: Inception
Upset: The King’s Speech
Should’ve been nominated: Black Swan
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will win: Inception
Should win: The Social Network
Upset: The King’s Speech
Should’ve been nominated: Harry Potter 7a
COSTUME DESIGN
Will win: Alice in Wonderland
Should win: I Am Love [shame it's too contemporary for this race]
Upset: The King’s Speech
Should’ve been nominated: Black Swan
MAKEUP
Will win/Should win: Barney’s Version
Upset: The Wolfman
Should’ve been nominated: Black Swan
ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win/Should win: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Social Network
VERY LIKELY Upset: Alexandre Desplat, The King’s Speech
Should’ve been nominated: Alexandre Desplat, Harry Potter 7a
ORIGINAL SONG
Will win/Should win: If I Rise, 127 Hours
ANOTHER VERY LIKELY Upset: We Belong Together, Toy Story 3
Should’ve been nominated: NEVER! SAY! NEVERRRR! [No I'm totally kidding.]
ANIMATED SHORT
Will win/Should win: Day and Night
Upset: Let’s Pollute
LIVE ACTION SHORT
Will win: Wish 143
Should win: God of Love
Upset: God of Love
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will win: Sun Come Up
Should win: I HAVE NO IDEA.
SOUND EDITING
Will win: Inception
Should win: True Grit
Upset: True Grit
Should’ve been nominated: Harry Potter 7a
SOUNDS MIXING
Will win: Inception
Should win: The Social Network
Upset: The King’s Speech
Should’ve been nominated: Black Swan
VISUAL EFFECTS
Will win: Inception
Should win: Harry Potter 7a
Upset: Alice in Wonderland
Should’ve been nominated: Scott Pilgrim vs the World
- 4 comments
- Posted under Movies
Permalink # kristen said
Now that I have finally seen The King’s Speech, you are right. The Social Network will be remembered and cherished much more, and deserves a best picture.
I would also vote Jesse Eisenberg for Leading Actor, but won’t be disappointed when Colin Firth takes home the naked man. He did a good job.
Permalink # Noah said
I concur. I also feel that he probably deserved to win last year for A Single Man, and in some ways Jeff Bridges may deserve it this year for True Grit. So I’m cool with the two of them flip-flopping for less impressive performances.
Permalink # kristen said
Thanks, Noah! I was looking forward to this and I will be watching the Oscars will this blog post as my guide as I have the last few years.
Permalink # mistercheech said
I’m pretty sure The Social Network will win. The King’s Speech is not American enough.